Toronto Winter Forecast: Strong El Niño Could Mean Less Snow This Year
The Toronto winter forecast looks a little different this year. A very strong El Niño is building in the Pacific Ocean. Forecasters say it could bring southern Ontario a milder winter, with less snow and shorter cold spells. Some people online are calling it a “Godzilla” El Niño because of how strong it may get.
Still, experts say snow and storms are not off the table. Here is what we know so far.
View this post on Instagram
What Is El Niño
El Niño happens when warm water builds up in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. It usually comes back every three to five years. When it does, it can change weather patterns around the world, including in Canada.
In Toronto and the rest of central and eastern Canada, El Niño is felt most in winter and spring. In the past, it has often brought milder and drier weather to the Toronto area.
Why This El Niño Stands Out
This year’s El Niño could be one of the strongest on record. Environment and Climate Change Canada says ocean temperatures in the central Pacific could rise more than three degrees above the long-term average. A “very strong” event starts at just two degrees.
Marko Markovic is a physical scientist with Environment and Climate Change Canada. “We never had a three-degree El Niño,” he told NOW Toronto.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) also says the event is growing fast. “El Niño is firmly established and strengthening rapidly,” said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo. The WMO says there is a near-100 per cent chance it will last through February 2027.
What the Toronto Winter Forecast Could Look Like
Here is what forecasters say a strong El Niño could mean for the Toronto area:
- A warmer start: The Weather Network says Canada could see one of its mildest winters in years. In southern Ontario, December may feel more like late fall.
- Less snow: Toronto could get less snow and a shorter snow season.
- More rain: More of the wet weather could fall as rain instead of snow.
- Short cold snaps: Cold spells from late January into February may not last long.
Markovic also explained how the snow season can change. “Normally, we do have a shorter snowing season. The season starts later, it finishes earlier,” he said.
Winter Is Not Cancelled
A milder winter does not always mean an easy one. The Weather Network says cold blasts from the Arctic and big storms are still possible, especially if the polar vortex shifts. In places that stay cold enough, an active storm track could still bring heavy snow.
Past strong El Niño events also brought surprises. For example, the 1997–98 El Niño played a part in the Great Ice Storm of 1998 in Ontario and Quebec. The federal climate service says freezing rain and local flooding are possible this winter too.
Experts also point out that long-range forecasts only show broad patterns. They cannot predict exact storms months ahead. Besides, every El Niño is a little different.
For now, the Toronto winter forecast points to a mild start. Even so, it is a good idea to keep your boots and shovel close. Forecasters will share updated outlooks as winter gets closer.
You Might Also Like…
- Toronto’s First Snow Usually Arrives Around November 3—but 2026 Winter May Start Later
- Best Winter Festivals in Toronto & GTA 2026-2027
References
