Ontario Gas Prices Dropping This Friday: Here’s What You Need to Know Before Filling Up

If you are commuting across the GTA or planning a road trip out of the province this weekend, you might want to keep a close eye on your fuel gauge—and your wallet. As anyone navigating the recent volatility reported by GlobalPetrolPrices can attest, the cost at the pumps has been nothing short of exhausting.

However, after weeks of astronomical costs, relief is finally arriving. Based on our tracking of global oil markets and local industry metrics, drivers who exercise just a little bit of patience this week are going to reap immediate financial rewards.

Ontario gas prices — *Photo by engin akyurt*

The Friday Advantage: Immediate Relief at Ontario Pumps

Industry experts are sending a clear, unanimous message to Canadian drivers right now: do not fill your tank today.

Following the announcement of a two-week U.S.-Iran ceasefire, global crude markets have experienced a sudden shock, and those wholesale savings are finally trickling down to the local consumer level. According to renowned industry analyst Dan McTeague, President of Canadians for Affordable Energy, and recent data from Gas Wizard’s regional price predictions, we are about to see one of the most significant overnight price drops of the year.

Prices are projected to fall by 2 cents a litre to 186.9 on Thursday. But the real savings arrive on Friday, with a massive 13-cent plunge bringing prices down to 173.9 per litre. You can verify these real-time shifts through CityNews’ GTA gas price tracker.

What to Expect This Weekend

For the average driver, waiting until Friday could mean keeping an extra $10 to $15 in your pocket per fill-up.

The news is even better for the logistics, trucking, and supply chain sectors. The price of diesel is slated to drop a staggering 28 cents per litre to 206.9 on Friday. If you are currently running on empty, the best practical experience-based advice is to put in just $5 or $10 to get you through your Thursday commute, and wait for Friday morning to completely fill the tank.

Why Are Prices Shifting So Dramatically?

To understand the rollercoaster of Ontario gas prices, we have to look far beyond our borders. The sudden price drop is a direct response to a fragile, temporary ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran.

Prior to this week, oil prices had surged to over $96 a barrel (Brent crude) amidst intense geopolitical conflict, including recent strikes in Lebanon. When the two-week ceasefire was announced, crude oil futures plummeted as traders banked on renewed stability.

The Global Ripple Effect and the Strait of Hormuz

The linchpin of global oil stability—and by extension, what you pay in Toronto or Ottawa—is the Strait of Hormuz. Roughly 20% of the world’s oil transits through this vital waterway, according to maritime chokepoint data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

The ceasefire states that ships can safely navigate the Strait. However, Iranian naval warnings have paralyzed the shipping industry. Maritime tracking firms note a severe drop in traffic. Only a handful of ships have crossed the strait recently. Before the conflict, 130 vessels transited daily. Even if the waterway fully opens today, recovery will be slow. Clearing the tanker backlog will take at least 10 days.

Will Prices Keep Falling? What the Future Holds

While Friday’s drop is highly anticipated, don’t expect to see pre-war prices of $1.50 per litre anytime soon.

Independent oil analysts often refer to the “rocket and feather” effect: when global oil prices rise, retail gas prices shoot up like a rocket. But when wholesale prices drop, retail prices drift down slowly like a feather. Retailers typically squeeze their margins when wholesale costs jump, and they hold onto higher prices on the way down to recoup their losses.

Tools like CAA’s national gas price tracker indicate that while retail prices will edge down by a few cents each day following wholesale drops, a full return to baseline pricing takes weeks.

The Reality of Infrastructure and Tolls

Adding to the long-term cost is the severe damage to oil infrastructure across the Middle East. Millions of barrels per day of crude production have been shut down. Furthermore, reports suggest that shipping companies are now being charged up to $2 million in transit fees just to guarantee safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz.

These massive maritime tolls add roughly $1 per barrel to the global cost of oil. Because oil is a globally traded commodity, these extra logistical fees will inevitably be factored into Ontario gas prices for the foreseeable future.

The Bottom Line: Take advantage of Friday’s double-digit price drop to fill your tanks and jerry cans. While the immediate future offers a brief window of affordability, the lingering global supply chain issues mean we aren’t out of the woods just yet.

You Might Also Like:

Ontario Gas Prices Dropping This Friday: Here’s What You Need to Know Before Filling Up