Who Will Be the Next Pope? Inside the Largest and Most Divided Conclave in History

The Catholic Church stands at a historic crossroads as 133 cardinals gather in Vatican City to elect a new pope—the largest conclave in history and potentially its most unpredictable.

This pivotal moment follows the death of Pope Francis, who passed away last month at 88. His legacy? A deeply diverse but divided College of Cardinals. As voting begins under the frescoes of Michelangelo in the Sistine Chapel, observers note not only the scale of the gathering but the conflicting visions of the Church’s future represented within it.

A Global Group with Conflicting Visions

Pope Francis appointed about 80% of the current voting cardinals, expanding representation to include voices from South Sudan, Haiti, Myanmar, and Papua New Guinea. This diversity has brought global issues to the forefront, from declining congregations in Europe to social justice and conflict resolution in Asia and Africa.

However, the cardinals remain split. On one side are progressive figures, like Luis Antonio Tagle of the Philippines, Matteo Zuppi of Italy, and Jean-Claude Hollerich of Luxembourg, who reflect Francis’s push to make the Church more inclusive. On the other are traditionalists like Péter Erdő of Hungary and Robert Sarah of Guinea, who aim to undo many of Francis’s reforms.

Top Contenders and Surprising Speculation

The papabili—those considered most likely to ascend to the papacy—include:

1. Pietro Parolin (Italy, Age 70)

Role: Vatican Secretary of State
Strengths: Diplomatic skills, global outlook, deep Curia experience
Challenges: Seen as too administrative; has faced criticism over abuse case transparency
Position: Moderate with traditional leanings

2. Luis Antonio Tagle (Philippines, Age 67)

Nickname: “The Asian Francis”
Strengths: Charismatic, pastoral, global appeal, relatable to everyday Catholics
Challenges: Criticized for handling of clerical abuse cases; quiet on some political issues
Position: Progressive and compassionate

3. Robert Prevost (USA, Age 69)

Role: Prefect of the Dicastery for Bishops
Strengths: Experienced in Latin America, reformist credentials
Challenges: May face scrutiny over past abuse allegations in Peru
Position: Moderate reformer with administrative trust

4. Peter Kodwo Appiah Turkson (Ghana, Age 76)

Strengths: Known voice from Africa, widely respected, previously favored
Challenges: Age, previous controversies, not eager for the role
Position: Conservative, but open on social tolerance

5. Fridolin Ambongo Besungu (DR Congo, Age 65)

Strengths: Strong on Church advocacy under persecution, rising African voice
Challenges: Opposes same-sex unions, may be viewed as too conservative globally
Position: Culturally conservative with firm leadership

6. Peter Erdo (Hungary, Age 72)

Strengths: Deep European ties, respected theologian
Challenges: Conservative on migrants and social issues
Position: Traditionalist; possible compromise candidate

7. Matteo Zuppi (Italy, Age 69)

Strengths: Peacemaker, popular with progressives, strong on diplomacy
Challenges: Close association with Francis may deter traditionalist voters
Position: Progressive with a focus on unity

8. Mario Grech (Malta, Age 68)

Role: Secretary of the Synod of Bishops
Strengths: Advocate for synodality, supports greater lay involvement
Challenges: Less known outside Vatican circles
Position: Reformist, favors Church democratization

9. Joseph Tobin (USA, Age 73)

Strengths: Bridge-builder, open to LGBTQ+ inclusion and women’s roles
Challenges: Seen as “too liberal” by some factions
Position: Progressive, pastorally focused

10. Jean-Marc Aveline (France, Age 66)

Strengths: Interfaith leader, social justice focus, speaks Arabic
Challenges: Limited Italian fluency; less global name recognition
Position: Francis-aligned, inclusive vision

Long-Shot or Senior Figures

• Pablo Virgilio David (Philippines): Newest cardinal; highly regarded for outspoken moral stance
• Marc Ouellet (Canada): Age 80, respected but ineligible to vote
• Angelo Scola (Italy): Age 83, retired and likely symbolic only
• Michael Czerny (Canada): Strong on human development; another Jesuit
• Charles Maung Bo (Myanmar): Respected but not considered front-runner

What’s at Stake in This Conclave?

The next pope must unite a divided Church, tackle the ongoing abuse crisis, and navigate tension between doctrine and modern realities. Many cardinals agree on one thing: the need for someone who can guide a confused and fractured world while strengthening the Church’s moral and spiritual voice.

Despite speculation, few frontrunners ever emerge victorious. As tradition says:
“He who enters the conclave a pope leaves as a cardinal.”

Voting Begins Under Lockdown

The cardinals entered Casa Santa Marta on Tuesday, where they surrendered mobile phones and contact with the outside world. They now travel only between the guesthouse and the Sistine Chapel. Each day, they’ll cast ballots twice—once in the morning and once in the afternoon.

• Black smoke from the chapel chimney means no decision.
• White smoke signals the Church has a new pope.

If no decision emerges after three days, the cardinals will pause for reflection before continuing.

Challenges Awaiting the Next Pope

Cardinals agree the Church needs a leader who can act as a spiritual guide and global statesman. The next pope must heal internal divisions, enforce reforms on sexual abuse and financial transparency, and connect with everyday believers.

Despite Pope Francis’s clear efforts to amplify marginalized voices and shift Church governance toward laypeople, many found his approach unclear or unfinished. His successors will need to balance doctrinal stability with pastoral openness, especially regarding LGBTQ+ inclusion and women’s roles in the Church.

A Search for Unity in a Divided Church

In pre-conclave meetings, the word “unity” surfaced repeatedly. Some attendees criticized Francis for centralizing authority, while others emphasized the importance of building on his inclusive vision.

One point of consensus? The conclave must be brief—cardinals hope to decide within three to four days.

For many, the ultimate task is to carry Francis’s voice forward: advocating for migrants, peace, and climate action, while redefining relevance for 1.4 billion Catholics across a fractured world.

Will the next pope continue Francis’s mission or pivot toward tradition? Let us know what qualities you believe the Church needs in its next leader.

More…

• https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/07/world/europe/pope-conclave-social-media.html
• https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/may/07/cardinals-begin-choosing-new-pope-conclave
• https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c2de9d8dky0o