China Becomes Top Buyer of Canadian Oil via Trans Mountain Pipeline

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China has emerged as the largest customer for Canadian oil shipped through the expanded Trans Mountain Pipeline, marking a significant shift in global crude flows. The change comes amid escalating U.S. trade tensions and sanctions on other major oil exporters.

Trans Mountain Pipeline
Photo by Hermes Rivera on Unsplash

Why China Is Turning to Canadian Oil

Since the Trans Mountain Pipeline (TMX) expansion began full operations in June 2024, Canada has exported an average of 207,000 barrels per day (bpd) to China, a staggering jump from 7,000 bpd in the decade prior.

This shift is driven by several factors:

  • U.S. trade war pressures, straining Canada-U.S. relations.
  • Sanctions on Russian and Venezuelan crude.
  • China’s strategy to diversify energy sources and reduce dependence on risky suppliers.

“Chinese refineries are mindful of U.S. sanctions and want stable alternatives,” explained Philippe Rheault of the University of Alberta’s China Institute.

Trans Mountain Pipeline Expansion: A Game Changer

The $34-billion TMX expansion tripled the pipeline’s capacity to 890,000 bpd, providing Canadian oil producers access to Pacific markets.

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While many expected U.S. West Coast refineries to dominate TMX demand, China’s growing appetite for Canadian crude has surpassed initial projections.

In the same period:

  • The U.S. imported 173,000 bpd from TMX.
  • Exports to other Asian markets—South Korea, Japan, India, Brunei, and Taiwan—also rose.

Canada’s Push to Diversify Oil Exports

Canada has long been over-reliant on the U.S. for oil exports, with roughly 90% of its crude flowing south. However, recent trade tensions and threats of tariffs have intensified efforts to diversify.

Canadian crude exports to non-U.S. destinations surged nearly 60% in 2024, hitting a record 183,000 bpd, according to Statistics Canada.

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Despite this success, challenges remain. Regulatory and political hurdles continue to stall new pipeline projects aimed at reducing U.S. dependency.

TMX Capacity and Future Growth

In 2024, TMX operated at 77% capacity, slightly below its 83% forecast, partly due to high shipping tolls. However, projections suggest:

  • 84% capacity utilization in 2025.
  • 92% by 2027.

Trans Mountain Corp. is now exploring further expansions to add 200,000 to 300,000 bpd of capacity.

According to energy strategist Skip York, any new capacity will likely head to Asia.

“Virtually all incremental vessels will flow west to China,” he said.

What’s Next for Canada’s Oil Industry?

As China’s demand grows and global dynamics shift, Canada’s opportunity to establish itself as a key crude supplier to Asia becomes more viable. However, the success of this pivot depends on addressing pipeline capacity, competitive tolls, and navigating geopolitical uncertainties.

Do you think Canada should invest in more export pipelines to Asia, or focus on existing infrastructure? 

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  • · · ·

    This $749K Toronto House Comes with a Pool and a Price Drop

    Ever heard of Driver Inc.? Canada’s trucking industry is calling it a $1B scam
    Canadian Trucking Alliance calls ‘Driver Inc.’ biggest threat to industry

    Robyn Miller · CBC News · Posted: Jun 25, 2025 4:00 AM EDT | Last Updated: 17 minutes ago
    man in truck
    Karanveer Singh came to Canada as an international student in 2018, chasing a better life. He says that journey took a detour when he started in the trucking industry. (Robyn Miller/CBC)
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    The national voice of the trucking industry in Canada is renewing calls for the federal government to pump the brakes on what it says is a $1-billion scam.

    The scam, which the Canadian Trucking Alliance (CTA) has coined “Driver Inc.”, occurs when companies incorrectly classify drivers as independent contractors, instead of employees to save money on payroll taxes.

    “We believe that in some parts of Canada at least a third of the companies and the drivers are participating in this, and it’s hurting us twofold as a society,” said Stephen Laskowski, CTA president and CEO.

    “Those are taxes that aren’t going into our [economy], and on the flip side of it, it’s about a 30 per cent advantage in the marketplace.”

    Laskowski described Driver Inc. as a tax evasion scheme and says some trucking companies are purposely misclassifying drivers to save money. He says drivers also lose labour protections including fair pay, overtime and vacation pay, as well as health and safety protections.

    In 2021, the government made it illegal for federally regulated employers to misclassify employees, and added penalties for non-compliance.

    Exposing the trucking industry’s underground economy

    5 hours ago
    Duration9:49
    The national voice of the trucking industry in Canada calls it a $1-billion scam and the biggest threat they’re facing. CBC explores “Driver Inc.”
    In a statement to CBC, Employment and Social Development Canada (ESDC) said that prohibition was strengthened in 2024 by placing the burden on employers to prove a worker is not an employee.

    However, Laskowski said more needs to be done, identifying Driver Inc. as the biggest current threat to the industry — including the ongoing Canada-U.S. trade war.

    “We have worked and pleaded with governments to address it, and the reality is they are starting to, but nowhere near to the level that needs to be done. Nowhere near,” he said.

    Companies target newcomers
    Driver Karanveer Singh agrees there’s a lack of enforcement against companies that break the law.

    Singh came to Canada from India’s northern Punjab state as an international student when he was 18 years old.

    “I’m trying to chase the Canadian dream,” he said.

    But Singh’s journey took a detour shortly after he got his commercial trucking licence. He said the first two companies he worked for misclassified him as an incorporated driver, and also never paid him.

    Singh was able to prove to the Canadian Labour Board that he had been misclassified and the companies were ordered to pay what he was owed.

    While he was able to collect from one of the companies, Singh said it’s unlikely he’ll ever see the nearly $40,000 owed by the second company.

    “Until the government enforces it, it is useless,” he said, referring to the court order. “These companies, they know what they are doing…. Most of the time they will find new immigrants, new truck drivers to target because they are so easy to target because every new immigrant is desperate for a job.”

    A difficult problem
    Part of the CTA’s solution involves lifting a moratorium on assessing penalties for failing to complete the fees for service box of the T4A tax slip.

    Laskowski said that would help the CRA identify and audit companies that rely heavily on incorporated drivers.

    However, it could also further slow an already sluggish system, according to Ottawa tax lawyer Dean Blachford.

    man in suit on parliament hill
    Stephen Laskowski says he’s been lobbying the federal government for 10 years to do something to even the playing field in the trucking industry. (Robyn Miller/CBC)
    “With penalties comes disputes and penalty relief requests that clog up the system even if they are for small amounts,” he explained in an email to CBC.

    “Meanwhile, the companies that are pushing the limits the most with Driver’s Inc. still might not comply with the T4A requirement and instead take further evasive means (such as using shell companies) to creditor proof themselves from having to pay the penalty if CRA ever identifies them.”

    In a statement to CBC, the CRA said it’s working toward lifting the moratorium before enforcement commences.

    It also said the agency is not aware of the analysis underlying Laskowski’s claim that Driver Inc. has resulted in about $1 billion in lost tax revenue, and “therefore cannot comment.”

    Driving down business
    The owner of Kriska Transportation Group in Prescott, Ont., is also urging the federal government to act, saying the Driver Inc. model is driving companies that do comply with tax regulations out of business.

    The unfairness makes owner Mark Seymour’s blood pressure rise.

    “It’s widely known, it’s not a dirty little secret. It’s out of control,” he said.

    man in suit in front of bench
    Ottawa tax lawyer Dean Blachford says identifying and auditing companies that rely heavily on incorporated drivers risks slowing down an already sluggish system. (Robyn Miller/CBC)
    Seymour has been in the business more than four decades, taking over Kriska from his late father in 1994.

    “I have competed as many of us have for many years based on price and service where price should be established from the same ground rules as everyone,” he said.

    “That’s paying appropriate taxes, treating people as employees and in the manner that the government would expect.”

    man in plaid shirt in front of white truck
    Mark Seymour, CEO of Kriska Transportation Group, says compliant companies such as his simply can’t compete with those using the Driver Inc. model. (Robyn Miller/CBC)
    Ron and Francie Langevin own P.A. Langevin Transport in Carleton Place, Ont., and say they, too, worry about the future.

    “There’s so much wrong with this industry right now,” Ron Langevin said, adding he suspects the companies that operate under the Driver Inc. model are so focused on profits that they also let safety standards slip.

    “These issues are falling through the cracks, and the next time you’re driving on a highway with a transport truck beside you I want you to look at it and I want you to wonder how safe am I, really,” Francie Langevin said.

    Safety blitz kicks off as Ontario sees transport truck crashes soar
    Hidden camera, internal memo reveal how unqualified truck drivers are getting onto Canada’s roads
    Singh said in his experience, that assessment is true. He recalled being trained by a very inexperienced driver who got them into trouble at the Port Huron border crossing.

    “He hit the concrete wall over there at the border, and I was so surprised. Like, this is supposed to be my trainer and he just like damaged the truck,” Singh said.

    On his next trip, Singh said he was asked to be the trainer.

    “They did not [tell] me a single thing and just gave me a new training driver for me to train,” he said. “They want their stuff delivered, they want their job done.

    “I think when these companies are allowed to operate, Canadians are not safe,” he said.

    man and woman in navy blue in front of transport truck
    Ron and Francie Langevin worry about the future of the trucking industry. They suspect companies that use the Driver Inc. model also cut corners when it comes to safety. (Robyn Miller/CBC)
    ESDC said it is taking action, recently entering into an information-sharing agreement with the CRA to help with enforcement and compliance.

    It also pointed to a dedicated team of inspectors focused exclusively on the road transportation industry across Canada. Since 2023, ESDC said the team has conducted about 540 inspections and held 320 education sessions across the country.

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